Successful Texas Hold’em players must make themselves familiar with the mathematics of the game. When you decide to play a hand preflop, the cards that hit the board on the flop dictate your strategy for the rest of the hand.
What are the odds of flopping a pair, a set, or any other kind of strong hand? Let’s take a look in this article.
What Are The Odds of Flopping Each Hand in Poker?
Certain made hands can only result from specific hole card conditions. While any starting hand combination can flop a pair or trips, only paired hole cards can flop a set. For another example, only suited hole cards can flop a flush.
Here’s a glance at the odds of flopping some of the strongest hands in Texas Hold’em:
What Are The Odds of Flopping a Pair?
Assuming your hole cards are unpaired, you have about a 29% chance of hitting a pair on the flop. This translates to about 2.45-to-1 odds against flopping a pair.
What Are The Odds of Flopping Two Pair?
With unpaired hole cards, you have about a 2% chance of pairing each card for a flopped two pair. This translates to about 50-to-1 odds against flopping two pair.
What Are The Odds of Flopping Three of a Kind?
You have two ways to make three of a kind on the flop in Texas Hold’em. Making trips requires holding unpaired hole cards, and seeing two matches to one of your hole cards hit the board.
For example, if you hold A♠ K♥ preflop, and the flop comes K♣ K♦ 5♦, you’ve flopped trip kings. The odds of flopping trips are about 1.35% or about 74-to-1 against.
What Are The Odds of Flopping a Set?
Making three of a kind with paired hole cards and a third matching card hitting the board on the flop is known as flopping a set. For example, if you hold 8♥ 8♣ preflop, and the flop comes A♣ 8♦ 5♠, you’ve flopped a set of eights.
With any paired hole card combination, you have about a 10.8% chance of flopping exactly a set. This translates to about 9.25-to-1 odds against flopping a set.
What Are The Odds of Flopping a Straight?
To flop a straight, you must have hole cards that allow the possibility of connecting with the board to make a straight.
With hands that have four different possibilities to flop a straight (connectors JT through 54), you have a 1.3% chance of flopping a straight. That equates to 76-to-1 odds against.
Hole card combos that have three ways to flop a straight have an 0.98% chance of seeing a competed straight on the flop. Two-way straight hands flop a straight .065% of the time, while one-way straight hands make a straight on the flop .033% of the time.
What Are The Odds of Flopping a Flush?
Flopping a flush requires two suited hole cards, and three more cards of that same suit appearing on the flop. If your two hole cards are both the same suit, you have an 0.8% chance of flopping a flush. This equates to 118-to-1 odds against making a flush on the flop.
Of all possible hole cards combinations, 23.5% are suited. This means you’ll pick up suited hole cards roughly once every four hands in Texas Hold’em.
What Are The Odds of Flopping a Full House?
You can make a full house on the flop with any starting hand combination, but the odds of flopping a boat are significantly better when you have a pocket pair as your hole cards.
When dealt a pocket pair, you have an 0.98% of flopping a full house (101-to-1 odds against). Preflop, you have a 5.88% chance of being dealt a pocket pair (16-to-1 odds against).
With any hole card combination that’s not a pocket pair, you have just an 0.09% chance of seeing a full house on the flop.
What Are The Odds of Flopping a Straight Flush?
Very few starting hand combinations even allow the opportunity to flop a straight flush. For hands that have four ways to flop a straight flush (suited connectors 54 through JT), you have an 0.02% chance of making a straight flush on the flop.
Three-way (0.015%), two-way (0.01%), and one-way straight flush hands (0.005%) have even less of a chance of coming through on the flop.
What Are The Odds of Flopping a Royal Flush?
Flopping a royal flush in Texas Hold’em involves hitting the longest of odds. You must be dealt two suited broadway cards (cards ranking ten or better), then hope for the one mathematically possible flop to appear that completes the royal flush.
There are 19,600 possible flops, and only one of them makes a royal flush when you’re holding two suited broadway cards. That 1-in-19,600 probability equates to an 0.005% chance of flopping a royal flush.
Seeing two suited broadway cards in the hole is a fairly rare occurrence on its own, happening around once every 32 hands.